Thursday, May 16, 2019

#ExxonKnew - #WeKnew

From Twitter

In 1982, #Exxon predicted 400-420ppm #CO2 and ~1.1C warming (since 1960) for today in proprietary report.  They were right, but did not share.  Also, predicting ~3C increase for 21st Century. 
12:20pm · 14 May 2019 



Read the report!  It assesses the (published) climate science of the day and inserts consumption predictions, all of which was public knowledge.  No conspiracy here; society decided to ignore that knowledge.
11:54am · 15 May 2019



Those upset by #ExxonKnew, here is prior year spot-on Hansen etal analysis using basic energy balance calculation and similar fast growth projection. New hashtag #WeKnew.
Paper at:
7:52am · 16 May 2019

Coda  

Read the 2018 NYT Magazine article "Losing Earth: The Decade We Almost Stopped Climate Change", By Nathaniel Rich.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.html

Friday, May 10, 2019

Road to a Resilient Global Society

Daily news reports bring harrowing testimonials by communities, aid organizations and local officials of rapid environmental changes that are underway.  Yet, our society’s response to these changes is slow, and, in many cases, remains non-existent.  This inaction may reflect the perception that change is inherently slow and gradual, such as climate warming over several decades. 


The meaning of long-term change is embodied in the concept of sustainability, defined as a world where human needs are met equitably without harm to the environment, and without sacrificing the ability of future generations to meet their needs.  However, changes are impacting human society more quickly in many areas, affecting wealthy nations and poor nations alike.  This is captured by the complementary concept of resilience, which examines the ability of human society to prepare for, to absorb, to recover from, and to adapt to adverse events.  Societal resilience forms the foundation of a connected set of scientific perspectives by Susan Anenberg, Andrea Dutton, Christine Goulet, and Daniel Swain that explore the changing domains of air quality, sea level rise, earthquakes, and extreme weather in a long-form commentary in the science journal Earth's Future (https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001242).

Society’s progress along the four corners of prepare, adsorb, respond and adapt resilience square is uneven, in spite of our understanding of the foundational science and a growing sense that urgent action is needed.  The resilience vignettes describe the meaning and impact of current and near-term change in four major domains: human health impacts from air pollution, coastal inundation from sea-level rise, damaging earthquakes in populated areas, and impacts from extreme precipitation. 

Given our understanding of the scientific principles, societal action, from preparation to adaption, will be critical in minimizing the negative impacts of today’s changes.  The unprecedented rates of change in today's Earth system argue for urgent action in support of a resilient global society.

Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather, by Susan C. Anenberg, Andrea Dutton, Christine Goulet, Daniel L. Swain, Ben van der Pluijm.
Earth's Future, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001242