#ExxonKnew - #WeKnew

From Twitter

In 1982, #Exxon predicted 400-420ppm #CO2 and ~1.1C warming (since 1960) for today in proprietary report.  They were right, but did not share.  Also, predicting ~3C increase for 21st Century. 

Paper at:
https://insideclimatenews.org/system/files_force/documents/1982%20Exxon%20Primer%20on%20CO2%20Greenhouse%20Effect.pdf

12:20pm · 14 May 2019 

Read the report!  It assesses the (published) climate science of the day and inserts consumption predictions, all of which was public knowledge.  No conspiracy here; society decided to ignore that knowledge.

11:54am · 15 May 2019

Those upset by #ExxonKnew, here is prior year spot-on Hansen etal analysis using basic energy balance calculation and similar fast growth projection. New hashtag #WeKnew.
Paper at:

https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1981/1981_Hansen_ha04600x.pdf

7:52am · 16 May 2019

Coda  

Read the 2018 NYT Magazine article "Losing Earth: The Decade We Almost Stopped Climate Change", By Nathaniel Rich.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.html

Road to a Resilient Global Society

Daily news reports bring harrowing testimonials by communities, aid organizations and local officials of rapid environmental changes that are underway.  Yet, our society’s response to these changes is slow, and, in many cases, remains non-existent.  This inaction may reflect the perception that change is inherently slow and gradual, such as climate warming over several decades. 

The meaning of long-term change is embodied in the concept of sustainability, defined as a world where human needs are met equitably without harm to the environment, and without sacrificing the ability of future generations to meet their needs.  However, changes are impacting human society more quickly in many areas, affecting wealthy nations and poor nations alike.  This is captured by the complementary concept of resilience, which examines the ability of human society to prepare for, to absorb, to recover from, and to adapt to adverse events.  Societal resilience forms the foundation of a connected set of scientific perspectives by Susan Anenberg, Andrea Dutton, Christine Goulet, and Daniel Swain that explore the changing domains of air quality, sea level rise, earthquakes, and extreme weather in a long-form commentary in the science journal Earth's Future (https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001242).

Society’s progress along the four corners of prepare, adsorb, respond and adapt resilience square is uneven, in spite of our understanding of the foundational science and a growing sense that urgent action is needed.  The resilience vignettes describe the meaning and impact of current and near-term change in four major domains: human health impacts from air pollution, coastal inundation from sea-level rise, damaging earthquakes in populated areas, and impacts from extreme precipitation. 

Given our understanding of the scientific principles, societal action, from preparation to adaption, will be critical in minimizing the negative impacts of today’s changes.  The unprecedented rates of change in today's Earth system argue for urgent action in support of a resilient global society.

Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather, by Susan C. Anenberg, Andrea Dutton, Christine Goulet, Daniel L. Swain, Ben van der Pluijm.
Earth's Future, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001242

The Long and Winding Road: Making Resilience Real

More than 40 years ago the economist John Kenneth Galbraith remarked that the world had arrived at the “Age of Uncertainty.” Fast forward to 2019 and human society’s pace of change is ever more rapid. Artificial intelligence, the internet of things, climate change, the rise of China and India, among other factors, have multiplied the challenges and risks. We cannot get back to a less connected world, nor can we dismiss concerns about the major challenges we face. Indeed, technological, social and environmental drivers will transform our world into an even riskier place in 2050 than it already is today. 

Human society faces many challenges ahead;
creating a sustainable and resilient world
will not be a straightforward journey.
Credit: Free-Photos (public domain)

In other words, to ensure that we are on track toward a sustainable future, we urgently need decision-making that allows social-ecological-economic systems to ‘bounce back’ or to become transformed, such that our planet maintains desirable (from a human and planetary perspective) properties.

Several major insights emerge from theoretical, model and empirical considerations:

• Integrated modelling, robust decision-making, methods from the nexus and proven practices offer innovations that can transform ‘business as usual’ into responses to risks.
• In the decades to come, a failure to integrate new approaches into the decision-making of public and private sectors could be catastrophic. 
• To successfully face our world’s challenges, we cannot return to a world that no longer exists.

We urgently need to transform our decision-making, and use innovative and proven methods to deliver a sustainable and resilient world for tomorrow. This will be a long and winding road, but a journey we must make together.


R. Quentin Grafton (The Australian National University) and Ben van der Pluijm (University of Michigan)

Citation: Grafton, R. Q., and B. van der Pluijm (2019), The long and winding road: Making resilience real, Eos, 100, https://doi.org/10.1029/. 

Book Review of "Timefulness", by Marcia Bjornerud

Book Review:
"Timefulness: How Thinking Like a Geologist Can Help Save the World."
by Marcia Bjornerud.
Princeton University Press.

I don’t read that many books these days, I must admit. Indeed, Jeff Goodell’s much celebrated "The Water Will Come" remains mostly unread on my nightstand. So when the request to review Marcia Bjornerud’s Timefulness appeared I gladly accepted this motivating opportunity. This little book is only ~180 pages, but its size masks the breadth of coverage and detail presented. In five substantive chapters and several informative appendices, the book explores geologic time, tectonics and landscapes, atmospheric evolution, and modern (Ice Age) time, and offers, in the last chapter, a reflective take on today and our future.

Following a brief introductory chapter, a series of four self-contained chapters offer a breezy approach to major topics in the Earth Sciences that are taught in most colleges these days. In fact, I assume that they reflect the activities of the author in this realm, given the relevant examples and key details in places. Combining a pleasant writing style with just enough science information creates informative long-form journalism style pieces on these major topics. The takes in each chapter reflect the majority opinion on a topic and do not stray into new or minority opinions. For example, when getting to climate action in the atmospheric section, the descriptions of geo-engineering approaches are (appropriately?) guarded and not about urgency for correcting, perhaps risky action. Given that the book’s name is a play on mindfulness, these chapters are less transcending than the title and sleeve cover would suggest, but they are certainly informative and complete. Much use is made of creative quotes and section titles, as well as (mostly dead) geo-star icons. The concept of geologic time, or Deep Time, is sprinkled throughout, hence the book’s title, although the latter chapters are mostly about Modern Time. The final chapter, ‘Timefulness, Utopian and Scientific’, is a joy to read. It is the engaging type of writing one finds in The New Yorker or similar, and the author’s skill as a writer shines. As before, no new ground is covered, but the content and structure make it a compelling read. Among other uses, it makes a wonderfully motivating piece for today’s students that grudgingly take their required science course.

This book will appeal to the ‘John McPhee audience’. It makes for a great gift to friends and family interested in meaningful science and Earth Science history. Unlike many of today’s pieces in magazines and blogs, it is not preachy and offers the reader the underlying science in sufficient detail to develop an understanding and perhaps an opinion on the challenges before us. The Anthropocene makes its appropriate entrance near the end, linking geology of the long past to issues of today and tomorrow. As the author philosophically concludes, ‘we need to grow up and navigate on our own’.

From:
Holocene book review: Timefulness: How Thinking Like a Geologist Can Help Save the World. The Holocene, 2019, 29(2), 363–363.
https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683618819934